Solving Climate Change: A British Columbia Perspective
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The magnitude and impacts of climate change raise questions regarding what influence, if any, our individual actions and even our collective actions can have in remediation. Further, where do we start? What areas of our society are currently the most problematic and what are potential solutions that can be implemented now, where do we aim for the future, and what can you do as an individual?
This article is focused on an ambitious, yet practical, vision for a more prosperous and sustainable future for British Columbia (BC) in 2030 and beyond. While it is tailored to BC, this article provides information and guidance that can be taken, adapted, and utilized anywhere. Although not expressly focused on in this article the most important way to reduce your global impact on the Earth’s spheres, especially in wealthy countries, is by reducing our primary consumption of natural goods and services and reusing materials (i.e., Reduce, Reuse, Recycle!). In the words of Alanis Obomsawin:
“When the last tree is cut, the last fish is caught, and the last river is polluted; when to breathe the air is sickening, you will realize, too late, that wealth is not in bank accounts and that you can’t eat money.”
The problem: getting from 51 billion tonnes of CO₂e to net zero
To keep climate change within the critical 1.5°C warming threshold and avoid catastrophic future impacts, the global community needs to get from 51 billion tonnes annually to net zero carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e) emissions by 2050 (1,2).
Climate change adaptation (minimizing risks posed by current impacts) and mitigation (reducing emissions and the magnitude of future impacts) are not mutually exclusive from economic growth. However, getting to net zero will require ambitious sweeping changes across almost all areas of our current socio-economic systems as fossil fuels (and by extension CO₂e emissions) are completely ubiquitous with modern day life (3).
From the asphalt in the roads we drive on, to the mining and refinement of the metals in your phone, medications we take & medical products, electricity in our homes (depending on where you live) and everything in between: the modern world has been built on fossil fuels and still runs on them today (and those lucky enough to have benefitted from them should indeed be grateful).
Figure 1 : The worlds rising life expectancy and rapidly declining levels of extreme poverty has been enabled by the use of utilization of fossil fuels. Our World in Data.
Bill Gates simplifies the vast array of contributors to climate change by grouping global CO₂e emissions data into five broad sectors in his new book “How to Avoid a Climate Disaster: The Solutions We Have and the Breakthroughs We Need”, which have been borrowed and adapted below.
Figure 2 : Sector by sector breakdown of the annual 51 billion tonnes of global CO₂e emissions.
Manufacturing & industry covers processes from industrial scale to everyday products such as cement production, refinement of petroleum products, steel, and plastics; electricity production is self explanatory; growing things includes plants and animal agriculture; transportation covers emissions from planes, trucks, cars and cargo ships etc.; and finally, heating & cooling covers energy used in buildings for its namesake along with refrigeration.
Getting to net zero will require much more than just changing our habits, as illustrated by the temporary 7% decrease in emissions directly correlated to COVID-19 measures (anyone can attest to the immense socio-economic impacts associated with these measures and their unsustainability) (4). To stay on track for net zero we need to reduce emissions at that same annual rate for the next nine years (4).
Therefore, the world must be hyper focused on implementing policies and igniting innovation to support the research, development, and implementation of solutions (both technological and social) across these five sectors. Solutions that generate positive externalities, especially those that enhance the quality of life for those living in poverty and support reciprocal relationships with the biosphere, will be of greatest benefit. Arguably the most impactful emissions reductions will arise from transitioning to renewable electricity, as it will produce compounding offsets such as displacing gas cars or reducing the use of fossil fuels in manufacturing processes.
The five sectors in British Columbia
For the last year that data has been published in BC (2018) we emitted approximately 66.9 million tonnes of CO₂e, enough to cover the entire area of Vancouver Island in a blanket of CO₂ 1.15 m thick (were it visible to the naked eye) (5,6).
Figure 3 : By sector breakdown of BC’s 2018 emissions. Data taken from the Provincial greenhouse gas emissions inventory.
As can be expected, there are several key differences between global emissions and our provincial contributions. For one, BC has abundant hydroelectrical infrastructure, with 91% of BC’s electricity being produced by hydroelectricity, compared to 60% of global electricity sourced from fossil fuels. Transportation is another discrepancy, constituting a 25% greater share than the global average, a third of which comes from passenger transportation in BC (e.g., personal cars, trucks, and motorcycles). Manufacturing & industry emissions in BC also represent a greater proportion than the global average. Over half of BC’s manufacturing & industry emissions come from the oil and gas sector, with the remainder being attributed to the sum of emissions associated with smelting & refining of metals, cement production, pulp & paper fabrication, and light manufacturing. Emissions from growing things make up a far lower component of total emissions than the global average, partly attributed to our food import surplus, growing only 48% of the food consumed by the province (7).
Setting and achieving provincial targets
2018 emissions represent a 6% increase from 2007, BC’s target baseline year and starting point for the Climate Change Accountability Act (5). With provincial targets set then to reduce emissions by 40% by 2030 (interim target of 16% by 2025), 60% by 2040, and 80% by 2050 (this needs to be a net zero target) we are now faced with achieving a near 50% reduction in emission within the next nine years to meet the 2030 target (5). Despite the creation of CleanBC, models indicate we will fall 28-44% short of our 2030 emissions target, an alarming indicator that current initiatives are not sufficient (5).
Arguably the greatest barrier to achieving these targets is the increasing development of BC’s Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) industry. The under-construction LNG Canada project in Kitimat is slated to emit more CO₂e than all passenger vehicles in BC combined (almost 14% of our 2018 emissions) (8). BC’s fixation on the LNG industry continues despite the industry no longer competing with coal for new electricity in Asia (the primary target market for our LNG exports), which is increasingly developing cheaper renewables (see Figure 4) (8-10).
The International Energy Agency also noted in 2019 that: “There is significant uncertainty as to the scale and durability of demand for imported LNG in developing markets around the world” (11). The International Renewable Energy Agency further supports this, projecting a decrease in LNGs share of global energy generation from 16% today to 4-6% in 2050 (with use peaking in 2025) if the world is to achieve net zero targets (3). Some will argue that for countries looking to supplement renewable energy development while reducing emissions: LNG > oil > coal. That being said, ramping up LNG production in BC without a plan to offset emissions in order to meet climate targets is a slippery slope (the current target is a 33-38% reduction in CO₂e emissions from the oil and gas sector by 2030, what actions will be implemented remains to be seen) (5).
Figure 4 : Levelized cost of energy (lifetime cost per unit of energy) comparison for wind and solar vs LNG peaking and combined cycle. Data taken from Lazard’s.
Efforts to achieve emissions targets are further impeded by the provincial governments relative investment in the LNG industry compared to investments in climate change initiatives (which as mentioned are already deficient). CleanBC has approved $1.3 billion over four years in funding, representing an annual investment of $425 million (5). In comparison the province provides $686 million a year in subsidies to gas companies, a 79% increase from the previous incumbent government (4,8,12). The recommended annual average investment between 2016-2035 into climate mitigation and adaptation by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is 2-2.5% of GDP, equating to a BC investment of $5.436-6.795 billion per year (current investments are 92% short of that target) (13).
The BC carbon tax has played a prominent role in decreasing emissions across all these sectors since its implementation in 2008, predominantly by reducing gasoline and natural gas consumption (14). The carbon tax has accomplished this while enabling economic growth, supporting low-income households, and being revenue neutral (14). The tax is applicable to 70% of the economy, with that coverage crucial to incentivizing technological innovation and altering consumer habits (14,15).
Figure 5 : Globally implemented national and sub-national carbon price initiatives Taken from reference 8. The current level of BC’s tax ($40/tonne) adds about 8 cents per liter of gasoline at the pump.
Opportunities for the future and reasons to be overzealous
A reductionist approach frames BC’s (and the worlds) climate issue into two parts: the need to reduce emissions while also equitably increasing living standards for billions of people around the world (the primary objection frequently cited by those opposed to climate action, denial of empirical evidence notwithstanding, is socio-economic impacts). There are several ways in which BC can pursue these goals in tandem. These of course all will produce winners and losers (with a net-positive benefit for BC and the worlds spheres) and to mitigate negative impacts consistent, long term, and iterative policies are needed to provide guidance for citizens (along with retraining/support for those working in fossil fuel intensive sectors) and the free market.
Transportation
BC has a mandate for 100% of new vehicle sales to be zero-emission vehicles by 2040 (e.g., electric, hydrogen fuel cell) (16). There are rebates available from both the provincial and federal governments to support the purchase of zero-emissions vehicles. In 2019 electric vehicles made up nearly 9% of all passenger vehicles sold in BC (compared to 4.2% of global car sales) and the electric vehicle sector supports over 10,400 full time jobs while contributing $1.1 billion to BC’s GDP (3,5). Switching to electric and zero emissions passenger vehicles will have a substantial impact on BC’s emissions, while policies on biofuel and other low carbon intensity fuel requirements can help reduce emissions from those vehicles that require more energy dense fuels (i.e., heavy duty vehicles).
Manufacturing & industry
A transition to low emissions industry will require policies to support low CO₂e cement production, the electrification of industrial activities, point source carbon capture for industrial plants, and the reduction of public subsidies for the fossil fuel industry (especially high emitters).
Heating and cooling
There is an estimated $3.3 billion market for green building materials (over 2019-2032) for Metro Vancouver alone, while globally the market is expected to be worth over $350 billion by 2022 (17). Shifts to building options with low green premiums (e.g., the extra cost in choosing a low or zero emission alternative) have already begun, such as the uptake in heat pump installations. CleanBC also has rebates to support heat pump adoption and green renovations.
Growing things
Increasing the amount of food grown within the province can help reduce emissions associated with food imports while creating socio-economic benefits. Aquaponics and vertical growing are two promising emerging avenues for large scale sustainable food production the province can begin leveraging.
Electricity: BC’s greatest asset in a net zero world
BC has an incredible transmission network coupled with clean, reliable, and cheap renewable power in the form of large-scale hydroelectricity. The province has over 18 gigawatts of installed capacity and generates around 70,000 gigawatt hours of electricity a year (a gigawatt is 1,000,000,000 watts; the average lightbulb is 60 watts and would use 0.0005256 gigawatt hours of electricity a year if run non-stop) (18). More than enough to power everything in your home, a significant portion of the provinces industrial activities, and with some left over to sell to our neighbours. Large scale hydroelectricity is free from the primary issue facing most renewables (e.g., solar and wind), intermittency. When the sun doesn’t shine, and the wind doesn’t blow there’s no power to be generated, and conversely periods of high production that don’t match up with high demand pose immense (and extremely costly) challenges for energy storage. Hydroelectric dams allow for the storage of large volumes of potential energy (e.g., the water in their reservoirs) allowing them to essentially act as massive batteries that can produce scalable levels of power when needed.
While most of the forecasted additional electricity demand in BC is slated to be LNG expansion (around a 5% increase compared to current demand), electricity sales to the US and Alberta are other promising markets for our excess electricity (19). The grid in BC is one part of a few massive interconnected grids that cover much of North America (Figure 6). This allows for the transfer and sale of electricity to different regions. As areas rich with solar resources such as California expand their renewable capacity, BC can act as a stabilizing force on the grid, while being able to buy cheap excess solar power when it is cheaper than releasing our water to produce electricity. This gives BC a substantial advantage in the electricity market of the future. The sale of electricity to other jurisdictions currently yields BC a net income around $140 million/year on average (20).
Figure 6 : Major North American electrical grids. The Western Interconnection provides a vast customer base for BC’s reliable and dispatchable electricity.
We as a province have already begun the construction of Site C (which is unfortunately far over budget, behind schedule, opposed by many local stakeholders, and potentially geotechnically unstable) primarily to meet future LNG demand. We could instead use this excess capacity to electrify other areas of the economy and provide energy for emerging technologies that provide socio-economic benefits while achieving net zero goals. Potential stand outs are hydrogen fuel production and industrial scale carbon capture (both of which require substantial energy inputs).
Our electricity is clean (discounting the negative externalities associated with building large scale hydroelectric facilities), abundant, dispatchable, and can be traded, yielding the province a distinct advantage in an economy shifting towards electrification.
Research & development
A modelling study in the European Union found that a 1% increase in R&D expenditures as a percent of GDP (GERD) would cause an increase of real GDP growth rate by 2.2% (21). BC currently has a GERD of 1.4%, compared to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development average of 2.4% (21). 40% of all research in the province is conducted by BC’s universities; with UBC, SFU, and UVic having an estimated economic impact of $22 billion, of which over 35% is produced by knowledge creation and dissemination (21).
BC should provide more R&D incentives to attract ambitious and forward-thinking private sector companies. In 2018, BC’s 293 Cleantech companies provided an estimated $2 billion in domestic revenue while employing more than 9,700 people and exporting $1.2 billion in goods and services (5). Of the 2020 Global Cleantech Top 100 companies four were based in BC (a third of Canadian companies on the list) (5). The departure from a fossil fuel dominated economy has already begun, such as data being the most valuable commodity on Earth, to investments flooding into clean energy (3).
The economy is increasingly shifting to online and intangible assets. In 2019 91% of the US economy (taken as S&P 500 market value) was in intangible assets such as intellectual property, data, and branding (21). Reliable internet access coupled with cheap electricity and training presents the potential to repurpose small resource/extraction-based towns to capitalize on opportunities such as hosting data servers, crypto-currency mining, and remote work. The Connected Coast Project is one project bringing high-speed internet and cell phone service to small coastal communities.
Summary
Of course, the points discussed above can be argued as vast simplifications, however they do illustrate the primary contributors to BC’s emissions along with some advantages we possess and the opportunities we can seize in the economy of tomorrow. We need to be more ambitions in implementing policies and allocating capital to achieve these goals as those countries who become leaders in developing new technologies and driving future innovation will be the most prosperous. Importantly, we need to move beyond targets and immediately implement accountable action.
Canada, like most of the world, has a long history of creating targets and failing to implement sufficient measures to achieve them. Most prominently, the 1997 Kyoto Protocol (ratified to reduce emissions from 1990 levels by 6% between 2008-2012. We withdrew in 2011 after emissions had risen by 17%); the 2009 Copenhagen Accord (target to reduce 2020 emissions by 17% compared to 2005. As of 2018 we had reduced emissions by less than 0.5%); and we are projected fall short of our 2015 Paris Agreement targets (30% reduction from 2005 levels by 2030, on track for a 19% reduction). Our current targets and actions are insufficient to cover our fair share of global reductions (if the global community followed Canada’s approach, warming would catastrophically be between 2°C and 3°C) (1).
Ambitious goals actions make for outstanding achievements.
BC has the potential to be a heavyweight in the world’s energy transition
We have already had success in decarbonizing the BC economy with a 16% decrease in the carbon intensity of our economy (measured in tonnes of CO₂e per million $ of GDP) while per capita emissions have gone down by 8% since 2007 (5). As both a wealthy (the median annual after tax income in BC was $52,120, compared to $2,000 for half the worlds population) and high emitting (Canadian’s emit three times the per capita global average) it can be argued that we not only have an onus, but also have the financial, human resources, and technological capacity to undertake R&D in order to achieve cost reductions for those who cannot afford it (22,23).
As illustrated this does not equal a futile economic endeavour, there is enormous capital to be allocated and immense economic gains from being a world leader in technologies and social innovation to achieve net zero development.
In conclusion: at the individual level use your purchasing power (where/when you can within your budget) to champion green or carbon neutral goods and services, pressure companies (as an employee where you work and a customer for products you use) to switch to low carbon alternatives & reduce emissions, and do what you can to reduce your own carbon footprint (whether it be biking or walking when the weather is nice, cutting back on CO₂e intensive foods such as red meat, or offsetting emissions from activities such as air travel).
Most importantly and most impactful: call for and vote for strong, robust, and accountable climate action at local, provincial, and national scales.
As always thank you for reading! Please consider sharing with your family, friends, and colleagues. If there is anything you would like explained further, something you disagreed with, or future article topics you are interested in drop a comment or send us an email.
Works cited
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